PARALLEL CRISES


A good run-down on all the parallel crises playing out currently.

All of the trend lines between India and Pakistan point toward another crisis. Public diplomacy is absent. Extremist groups that focus on Kashmir are unlikely to sit idly by as Kashmiris resist Indian rule. They can expect help from Pakistan’s military and intelligence services that view Modi as unalterably hostile, despite his attempts to improve relations. There is deep resentment directed at Washington’s embrace of India, topped off by Trump’s public invitation to New Delhi to play a more prominent role in Afghanistan. The Trump administration’s strong warnings directed at Rawalpindi might induce caution – but I wouldn’t bet on it.

The complete article

Michael Krepon — Arms Control Wonk

KASHMIR AND RISING NUCLEAR DANGERS ON THE SUBCONTINENT


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Kashmir has been a long dispute between India and Pakistan. Given both these countries are nuclear powers and considering Donald Trump effect on international affairs, any escalation in conflict might be hazardous.

For now, with India and Pakistan at loggerheads, another flashpoint and test of wills might be avoided, since there is no need for anti-India groups and their backers in Pakistan to block improved relations. Irony is, however, an insufficient basis for stability when emotions are so raw and when Kashmiri opposition to Indian rule is so intense. Sooner or later, there will be another strike against India originating from Pakistan. The question will then become whether pieces other than pawns along the Kashmir divide are moved on the chessboard.

The complete article

Michael Krepon — Arms Control Wonk

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